Figure 1. Tool approach: The four stages followed in the tool and their connection to the exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity framework.
As illustrated in Figure 1, this tool applies an exposure–sensitivity–adaptive-capacity framework to assess project risks. It embodies the elements of the IPCC risk analysis1 framework and USAID’s framework2 for vulnerability assessment, with some modifications, to improve the tools usability and tailor it to (World Bank) investment projects. The IPCC (2014) defines risk as “the potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values3.” (Risk is sometimes equated to the product of probability and impact, but in this tool, probability is not explicitly considered.)
1 This framework is derived from the IPCC (2014) with slight modifications to improve the usability of the tool and to tailor the tool to World Bank projects.
2 USAID, Climate-Resilient Development: A Framework for Understanding and Addressing Climate Change (Washington, DC: 2014).
3 The greater the exposure and sensitivity, and the lower the adaptive capacity, the greater the "possibility of loss or injury."