The project location’s exposure to climate and geophysical hazards is evaluated in the Hazards & Location step. Exposure is the overlap between the presence of potentially damaging hazards and the location of communities, assets, and resources that are relevant to the project. Users evaluate exposure to two sets of hazards: climate hazards and geophysical hazards.1 The Roads tool specifically addresses the following climate hazards:
- Extreme Temperature
- Extreme Precipitation & Flooding
- Sea level Rise
- Storm Surge
- Strong Winds
The geophysical hazards addressed in the tool are:
- Volcanic Eruptions
The phrase “climate and geophysical hazards” captures all of the hydro-meteorological, oceanographic, and geophysical hazards listed above. These hazards were selected because they are highly relevant to roads projects. The list is not exhaustive; in some cases, certain hazards might not be explicitly addressed by the tool (examples include heat waves, drought, and freeze-thaw cycles). Users have the option of adding additional hazards to the screening list. The screening tool does not address manmade disasters, such as armed conflict or chemical spills.
Data sources: For data on hazards in the project location, the tool relies largely on the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) and the CCKP’s Country Adaptation and Risk Profiles. The CCKP draws on global, quality-controlled datasets and is continually updated as new data become available. In some cases, the CCKP is supplemented with other sources of information. For more detail on the data used in this step, please refer to the Data Annex.
Climate time-frames: Exposure to climate hazards is evaluated in two time-frames, Historical/Current and Future, because past records are not necessarily indicative of future conditions. The Historical/Current time-frame is based on past extreme events and recent climate trends, such as increases in average temperature from the 1960-90 time period to the 1990-current time period. The Future time-frame focuses on the climate and climate-related conditions projected under different socioeconomic scenarios.
The default future time-frame selected in the Country Adaptation and Risk profiles is mid-century: 2040-59. This period was selected because it is most relevant to the lifetime of the World Bank’s projects and investments. However, since project lifetimes vary from project to project, users should adjust the time-frame of the climate information as necessary. Figure 2 below illustrates the concept of the time scale of climate change and project lifetimes as it applies to a range of investments.
Because geophysical hazards (earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcano eruptions) do not have associated future projections, exposure for those hazards is assessed only in the Historical/Current time-frame.
Figure 2. Time scales relevant to different types of investment.
Rating scale: The rating scale for exposure enables users to differentiate between hazards that occur with high frequency or severity, at one extreme, and those that may not be applicable to their project location, at the other. For example, inland roads may be highly exposed to extreme rainfall events, but not exposed to sea level rise or storm surge.The rating scale looks like this:
|Insufficient Understanding||Not Exposed||Slightly Exposed||Moderately Exposed||Highly Exposed|
1 See “Key terms” for definitions.
2 Numerous factors contribute to landslides, such as earthquakes, heavy rainfall, and erosion. However, because landslides are fundamentally ground movements, rather than climatic events, they are classified here as a geophysical hazard.
3 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “What is a GCM?” (http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/pages/gcm_guide.html)