The tools apply an Exposure–Impact–Adaptive-capacity framework to assess risks. The framework incorporates elements of the risk analysis framework adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the framework for vulnerability assessment used by the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID’s), with some modifications.
National Policy Level Tool Methodology:
- First, the user identifies priority sectors required to achieve country goals, which the user will rate for risk in the rest of the tool.
- Second, the user gathers information on climate and other hazards in the country and rates the potential impact of the hazards on each priority sector.
- Third, the user rates the institutional readiness, which is a measure of the country’s ability to respond successfully to the hazards.
- Fourth, the user determines overall risk by jointly considering the potential impacts and institutional readiness, along with the larger economic and social context that could influence the level of risk.
For detailed information, click here to download the full methodology document for the national/policy level tool.
Project Level Tool Methodology:
There are four distinct, but interrelated, stages that users follow.
- First, the user evaluates the extent to which their project/location will be exposed to each hazard.
- Second, the user combines this information with their understanding of the project’s physical components to assess potential impact from each hazard.
- Third, the user examines how relevant non-physical factors, such as institutional capacity and the larger economic and social context, influence the level of risk posed to the project.
- Fourth, based on these considerations, the user rates the overall risk to the project outcome. A PDF of the overall project risk profile is produced.
For detailed information, click here to download the full methodology document of an illustrative example of the approach of a project-level tool, the Roads tool.
Adaptive capacity: The ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences of hazards.1
Climate hazard: A physical process or event (hydro-meteorological or oceanographic variables or phenomena) that can harm human health, livelihoods, or natural resources. A hazard is not simply the potential for adverse effects.2
Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental services and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected by a hazard.1
Geophysical hazard: Natural land processes and events with the potential to cause harm to human health, livelihoods, systems, or natural resources. In this tool, "hazard" refers to the physical event itself, not its potential for adverse effects.2
Potential impact: The potential effects of hazards on human or natural assets and systems. These potential effects, which are determined by both exposure and sensitivity, may be beneficial or harmful.
Resilience: The capacity of a social-ecological system to cope with a hazardous event or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain its essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation.1
Risk: The potential for consequences where something of human value (including humans themselves) is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain.1 This tool defines climate risk as a combination of hazard exposure, sensitivity to impact, and adaptive capacity. It does not define risk as the product of the probability of hazardous events and the consequences of those events, as is frequently used.
Sensitivity: The degree to which a system, asset, or species may be affected, either adversely or beneficially, when exposed to climate variability or change or geophysical hazards.1
2 N. Brooks, “Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation: A Conceptual Framework” Working Paper No. 38 (Tyndall Centre, 2003) (http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp38.pdf)