Figure 1. Tool approach: outline of each step in the tool and its connection to the exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity framework.
As illustrated in Figure 1, this tool applies an exposure – sensitivity –adaptive capacity framework to assess climate and geophysical risks to the country’s priority sectors. This framework embodies the elements of the IPCC risk analysis1 framework and USAID’s framework2 for vulnerability assessment, with some modifications, to improve the tools usability and tailor the tool to country planning and investments.
In its 2014 climate change report, the IPCC defines risk as "the potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values." It is sometimes equated to the product of probability and impact. In this tool, probability is generally not explicitly considered. Therefore, the word "risk" in this tool follows a colloquial definition from Webster’s: “Possibility of loss or injury.” The greater the exposure and sensitivity and the lower the adaptive capacity is, the greater the possibility of loss or injury.
A further explanation of each step and the relationship between the steps follows.
1 This framework is derived from the IPCC (2014) with slight modifications to improve the usability of the tool and to tailor the tool to World Bank projects.
2 USAID, Climate - Resilient Development: A Framework for Understanding and Addressing Climate Change (Washington, DC: 2014) (http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAA245.pdf)