The potential impact from climate and geophysical hazards on the physical and structural components of the project is assessed for each of the sub-sectors addressed in the project. This potential impact is the combination of exposure and sensitivity of physical assets, adaptive capacity resources, and existing systems.
Choice of sub-sectors: A total of five sub-sectors are considered were identified for agriculture projects (namely, irrigation and drainage, crops and land management, livestock, rural transport, and storage and processing) because the nature of physical investments and associated potential impacts vary significantly from one sub-sector to another. This organization allows the user to capture the particular sensitivities within each sub-sector. These sub-sectors align closely to the World Bank internal coding systems. In addition, the assessment results can be displayed by sub-sector, enabling users to identify which specific elements of their project are subject to high potential impacts.
Applying time-frames: Potential impacts are evaluated separately for the Historical/Current and Future time- frames, because the level of potential impact may change as exposure changes over time. It is important to first evaluate historical trends and current baselines to understand the conditions and trends under which agriculture systems are currently operating.
Using the projections for future climate in the project location and relating them to the relevant time scale (see Figure 2), users can focus on the aspect of their project that will be relevant to its outcome in the Future time-frame. For example, if recent trends indicate that temperatures are rising to exceed the tolerable range for certain crops, this may significantly escalate the potential impact on future yields and local food production.
For investments with long lifetimes, such as physical infrastructure, considering future conditions is critical to avoid “locking in” designs that are not suited for higher sea levels or warmer temperatures. Inadequate designs include, for example, an irrigation infrastructure designed for historical water quantities, which may be less effective in the future due to significant reductions in water availability. Another example of inadequate design is crop storage and processing facilities that are not designed to withstand more frequent or severe flooding.
Rating potential impact: Those using the tool rate potential impact against multiple hazards, drawing on all of the exposure information and their own expert judgment. The tool displays all the hazards and separate ratings, providing users with a more integrated picture of climate and other risks in the project location and how they may affect the project. For example, soil erosion may result from a number of different hazards, including drought, heavy rainfall, and wind. In isolation, any one of these hazards may have only a small effect on erosion, but in combination, their impact could be significantly worse. By viewing all of the hazards together, the user can identify these potential interactions and rate impact accordingly. Alternatively, in some cases, the user may be able to quickly identify the key hazards that drive potential impact and prioritize those in selecting a rating.
The Potential Impact assessment is rated against multiple hazards, drawing on all of the exposure information and the expert judgment of the user in assessing potential impact. Displaying all of the hazards portrays a more integrated picture of climate in the project location and how that may affect the project. For example, soil erosion may result from a number of different hazards, including drought, heavy rainfall, and wind. In isolation, any one of these hazards may have a small effect on erosion, but in combination, the impact could be significantly worse. By viewing all of the hazards together, the user can identify these potential interactions and rate impact accordingly. Alternatively, in some cases, the user may be able to quickly identify the key hazards that drive potential impact and prioritize those in selecting a rating.
The rating scale for potential impact is:
| Insufficient Understanding | No Potential Impact | Low Potential Impact | Moderate Potential Impact | High Potential Impact |
In selecting these ratings, users overlay sensitivity considerations with the previous exposure ratings to assess potential impact. Therefore, the potential impact ratings may or may not align with the exposure ratings: for example, even if drought-tolerant crops are highly exposed to drought, the potential impact may be low due to the crops extremely low sensitivity.
See the Resource Annex for a list of resources on the potential impacts to climate change for the agriculture sector.